Overcapacity crisis construction machinery carefully enters the "rust age"
overcapacity crisis construction machinery carefully enters the "rust age"
WW catalyst revenue fell by 28%. China Construction machinery information
Guide: Recently, I chatted with some colleagues who studied cyclical industries. They said that some time ago they thought that month was a cyclical trough. It is expected that in the second half of the year, with the effect of monetary policy adjustment, commercial vehicles Cyclical industries such as construction machinery will gradually come out of the trough. The result now looks like August, September and
recently, I chatted with some colleagues who studied cyclical industries. They said that some time ago, they thought that month was a cyclical trough. It is expected that by the second half of the year, with the effect of monetary policy adjustment, cyclical industries such as commercial vehicles and construction machinery will gradually come out of the trough. As a result, it seems that August and September did not stabilize as expected, and the data of cyclical products continued to decline. Enterprises bear heavy fixed costs, and their profitability has declined significantly
in fact, the expectation of cyclical industry rebound has been delayed since the second half of last year. Since the sales of construction machinery, heavy trucks and heavy machinery in cyclical industries fell in the second quarter of last year, both the industry and the securities industry have been waiting for the government to introduce new stimulus policies. At first, it was predicted that it would get out of the trough by the end of 2011, but in fact it did not meet the expectations. Then, it pushed back the recovery expectations quarter by quarter, and the result was more and more pessimistic. In 2012, the sales volume of heavy-duty passenger cars continued to decline, the data of mining and application big data, Internet of things, cloud computing and other machines, cranes and loaders became worse and worse, the orders of machine tool industry fell sharply, and even the energy demand fell for the first time, and the growth rate of coal fixed asset investment slowed down. In 2012, the hope of enterprises to recover in the second half of the year was dashed again. Enterprises felt that the demand for equipment in various economic chains was shrinking, and the economy actually entered the downward channel
looking around the surrounding industries, overcapacity of ships, overcapacity of photovoltaic, overcapacity of wind power, overcapacity of cement, overcapacity of steel, overcapacity of heavy machinery, overcapacity of excavators...
if you question the investment of enterprises in view of these problems, you may get the answer: overcapacity is normal under the market economy system. However, a more rational view is that China's industrialization time is too short, resulting in a waste of centralized construction of production capacity. Even if the economy recovers, it will take quite a long time to digest the social production capacity rapidly formed in the past decade. People gradually return to reality. An entrepreneur who is seeking industrial upgrading said, "low-level repeated investment is simply a crime. The waste of resources caused by excessive investment may be the biggest waste in China at present". These excess capacity may bring China into the "Iron Age"
in the 1970s, some developed countries experienced the decline of old industrial bases after the boom of the period of heavy industrialization. A large number of factories closed down, and there were idle plants and abandoned rusty equipment everywhere. Therefore, these old industrial bases, such as the Ural Mountains in Russia and Ohio in the United States, were vividly collectively referred to as the "rust belt". Since 1999, China has entered the era of heavy industrialization, with the rapid growth of steel, cement, glass, raw coal and other industries, and the sharp increase in the production capacity of the heavy industry. During the decade from 1999 to 2008, the compound growth rate of steel production exceeded 20%. A large amount of demand for steel came from the crazy investment in fixed assets and the sharp expansion of the production capacity of heavy industrial enterprises. On this basis, the 4trillion yuan of China's market rescue in 2009 was like a stimulant injection into the cyclical manufacturing industry, which was still in excitement. From 2009 to 2011, fixed asset investment in manufacturing increased by 26.8%, 27% and 31.8% respectively, which directly led to overcapacity in the whole society
capacity expansion is usually determined by the relationship between supply and demand. The rapid growth of China's heavy industrialization objectively sends the message that demand exceeds supply to the market. The investment in the industrial chain of industrial enterprises has a multiplier effect, and the overly aggressive growth rate will inevitably lead to the doubling of the equipment manufacturing industryIn 2005, there were 19 hot rolling production lines in China, but by 2008, there were 61 hot rolling production lines, with an increase of 42 production lines in three years
in September 2007, the state and the national development and Reform Commission issued the medium and long term development plan for renewable energy, which proposed that by 20, from 2007 to 2009, the material consumption of thermoplastic injection molding had fallen by 50 tons after reaching the peak in 2007, and the total installed capacity of wind power in the country was targeted at 30million kW, In fact, China has gained a lot from our ability to share our research results and obtain inspiration from other scientists through our flagship companies. New energy such as electricity and solar energy are at the lowest end of the value chain. There is basically no technical threshold, and the scale expansion is simple and easy to replicate
by the end of 2008, 11638 wind turbines have been installed in China, with a total installed capacity of 12.17 million KW. Therefore, the competent department revised the data and increased the installed capacity of power supply to 100million kW in 2020. In 2009, the 4trillion wind power investment became a major contributor. In many places, the phenomenon of wind power investment rushing, repeated introduction and repeated construction has formed, and the industrial development has gradually developed from too fast to overheating. At present, there are more than 80 wind power plants, 50 blade plants and more than 100 tower manufacturing plants in China. If the power generation capacity of each household is 500000 kW, the power generation scale will reach 40million kW, but the actual national market capacity is less than 1/4 of it
Goldwind technology, which was listed at the end of 2007, was very popular at that time. The gross profit margin of the company has decreased from 29.8% in 2007 to 13.81% in the first half of this year. Before 2010, the company can still supplement the price by volume to maintain the growth of profits. In 2011, the company's revenue and profits fell one after another
the global photovoltaic capacity demand is about 30GW, and the capacity exceeds 40gw. 80% of the demand of this industry is abroad, and 80% of the capacity is in China. The decline of polysilicon price almost brought the whole industry into a lossAnother highlight of the 4trillion investment is the centralized investment in high-speed rail. Under the economic environment at that time, the railway investment plan also advanced the original 2020 investment plan to 2012, resulting in construction and equipment everywhere. Next, more problems are the frequent outbreak of safety accidents and the idleness of a large number of equipment caused by shutdown inspection
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