The hottest insider gatekeeper predicts the demand

Expert gatekeeper predicts 2016 heavy truck demand from the enterprise annual meeting

expert gatekeeper predicts 2016 heavy truck demand from the enterprise annual meeting

China Construction machinery information

in heavy truck analysis and prediction, there are generally three conclusions: multilayer film usually has thinner thickness than single-layer film, industry version, official (semi government) version, enterprise version. Here we do not make a conclusive interpretation of the prediction, but the guidance for all aspects is more realistic. The annual business conference of the enterprise is a summary conference, and the prediction of the enterprise version is basically released at this time; When the industry (official) data of heavy trucks were released this year, the prediction conclusions of the official version and the industry version were completely released. Now we will use some demand prediction information of enterprises to make mathematical analysis and draw the "enterprise version" prediction conclusion of heavy truck market demand

considering the reason of annual analysis of annual economic data, here we no longer do national economic operation analysis and industrial policy analysis, but only draw conclusions through mathematical analysis

statistical data of sales volume and market share of key heavy truck enterprises in 2015

I. Basic information of monthly sales volume and share of heavy truck market enterprises in 2015:

according to the prediction experience, At present, the demand forecast and analysis made by enterprises basically use the "official data in October or November 2015 (regular production and sales data of China Association of automobile manufacturers") 。 The sales data in December generally increased by 10% month on month, so the comparative analysis of the actual data of the end of 2015 is about 551300 vehicles. The share of each enterprise is basically based on the statistics in November 2015, and our mathematical analysis below will also be based on the market share in November 2015

the sales of the top five enterprises accounted for 83.07% in November 2015; The top 10 sales accounted for 97.03%; The top 14 sales accounted for 99.44%

II. List of 2016 demand data predicted by heavy truck market enterprises:

1. Shaanxi Automobile Group Co., Ltd.: 2016 annual business meeting will be held in Xi'an, Shaanxi on December 9, 2015 (tomorrow). The sales target of domestic civilian products of Shaanxi Automobile heavy truck in 2016 is 72000, with a significant increase year-on-year. Among them, 36500 tractors were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 35%; 12000 trucks, an increase of 200% year-on-year; 14000 dump trucks, an increase of 28% year-on-year; 5000 special purpose vehicles, up 66% year on year; 4500 gas vehicles, an increase of 88% year-on-year. "Among the 72000 vehicles targeted, the X3000 will sell 10000." The sales volume of the heavy truck industry in 2016 may be flat or slightly increased. "In, the total demand of the heavy truck market will stabilize at the level of 500000-600000 vehicles."

2. China Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd.: on December 18, 2015, the 2016 business conference of China heavy duty truck was grandly held in Jinan. Sinotruk believes that 2016 is the first year of the 13th five year development plan and the year of reform and innovation improvement of SINOTRUK. The basic development goal of SINOTRUK in 2016 is to sell 162000 complete vehicles, including 100000 heavy trucks, 60000 light trucks and 2000 passenger cars

3. China First Automobile Group Corporation: on December 22, 2015, FAW Jiefang from the frozen and snowy north spring city grandly held the 2016 business annual meeting of Jiefang in Chengdu International Conference Center. Jing Qingchun, head of the marketing management department of FAW Jiefang Co., Ltd. and general manager of FAW Jiefang automobile sales company, has made clear the target of FAW Jiefang in 2016, that is, the sales target of FAW Jiefang is 155100 vehicles, of which the sales of medium and heavy trucks is 137100, with a share of 18%, an increase of 0.8%; 18000 light trucks, with a share of 2%, up 0.5%. (there are some differences in the statistics of medium and heavy trucks, and we need to do some reclassification: according to the liberation of medium and heavy trucks, 128000 vehicles have been sold, accounting for 17.2% of the industry share, up 0.5% from 2014, and a historical breakthrough of 1.87 billion yuan in spare parts sales has been achieved.)

classification results: the sales target is 137100 vehicles, including about 91677 heavy trucks

4. Beiben Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd.: on December 23, 2015, the 2016 annual supplier conference of beiben was held in Baotou with the theme of "jointly dealing with the new normal and promoting common development through innovation". In 2016, beiben locked in the production and sales of 15000 vehicles, which is also the common goal of the whole beiben supply chain. " Among them, 5000 foreign trade target sales, 1000 military products, 1500 high-end and high-power tractors in the domestic civil market, 2000 special vehicles, 3000 engineering vehicles in advantageous regions, 1800 economic tractors, and 700 port vehicles

the total share of the above four enterprises in December 2015 was 49.86%

III. analysis of the forecast demand data of heavy truck market enterprises in 2016: 543100 vehicles

according to the 2016 task indicators of three enterprises, including China National Automobile Group Co., Ltd., China First Automobile Group Corporation and Shaanxi Automobile Group Co., Ltd., for which China heavy truck applied for its patent, we can infer the estimated demand of the three annual markets, and finally come to the total demand of 544620 vehicles, accounting for 48.25%; As other enterprises do not have the available forecast data for the time being, we use the inertia postponement method to know that the demand is 541767 vehicles, accounting for 51.75% of the sales. According to the mathematical analysis of the proportion of quantity, the final demand is calculated as 5. According to insiders, 43143 vehicles

IV. the "official voice" of the predicted demand of the heavy truck market in 2016: it is expected to be 10000 vehicles in 2015; The economy continued to decline in 2016, and the market demand for heavy trucks will also decline

on November 3, 2015, at the 2015 International Forum on heavy commercial vehicles, Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Development Department of the national information center and senior economist, said that at present, China's economic transformation is at a rapid pace, and the transformation related to heavy trucks is mainly reflected in the following four aspects: first, the potential economic growth rate is declining, and second, the transformation of growth momentum, That is, from export to domestic demand, from investment to consumption, the third is industrial transformation and upgrading, and the fourth is the strengthening of market forces. These transformations have led to two major trends in the development of the heavy truck market in the future, one is that the development speed should be reduced, and the other is that the product technology should be upgraded faster. For the heavy truck market sales in 2015, Xu Changming predicted that with the decline of investment, the highest level this year is 500000, and it is estimated that it will be about 450000 in the whole year. If the economy continues to decline in 2016, the market demand for heavy trucks will decline in the future. However, Xu Changming also said that in the future, with the structural adjustment to a certain level, the economic aggregate will increase, and the heavy truck may still rebound, but the market growth rate is only 3% - 4%, 2-3 percentage points lower than the GDP growth rate

v. analysis of 2016 demand data of heavy truck market enterprise forecast: industry expectations

our judgment on enterprise forecast is relatively pragmatic, but we have seen more orders for months. In conclusion, the "official voice" has long known that the GDP growth rate in 2016 fell to 6.7%, so the judgment prospect is more "pessimistic". Therefore, I, Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd., have summarized a lot of common sense about the safety protection of experimental machines. People are also looking forward to the complete data of China Association of automobile manufacturers in 2015 and the "industry forecast" of the heavy truck market in 2016