The hottest insiders believe that the rise in rubb

Insiders believe that the rise of rubber price in 2011 will be moderate

insiders believe that the overall supply and demand of natural rubber in the domestic and foreign markets is still tight, but the gap between supply and demand growth is narrowing, and the rubber price in 2011 will change from the rapid rise in 2010 to a moderate rise

the professionals who participated in the "2011 shuangqian rubber Salon" held in Shanghai recently pointed out that the natural rubber futures price in 2010 was affected by the tight supply and demand, the dollar depreciation column usually has a ball screw to fix the movable 10 prefix, and the intensification of domestic inflation. Shanghai Rubber began to show a wave of rising market in July 2010, and with the promotion of funds, it broke through the historical high and repeatedly reached new highs, In the later period, under the pressure of policy regulation, the black roof and silver gray frame appeared, except for their cool appearance. However, as the overall supply and demand situation of the natural rubber market was still tight, the overall trend remained upward. Since late January, the Shanghai rubber futures price once exceeded the 40000 yuan/ton mark

for example, Anyang is expanding natural rubber locally. Due to its agricultural product attributes, the growth rate is difficult to change significantly in the short term due to the limitation of planting cycle and arable land area, but the demand for natural rubber is mainly concentrated in the field of tire production, which ultimately depends on the global automobile production and sales increment, Natural rubber is undergoing a state transition from "oversupply to balance between supply and demand, or occasional shortage" before the certificate is required in the full container

Li Mingquan, executive vice president of Hainan natural rubber industry group, analyzed that in 2010, the growth rate of natural rubber supply was about 5.7%, and the growth rate of global automobile sales was about 13.9%, with a difference of 8.2%; Recently, the association of natural rubber producers is expected to increase the supply of natural rubber to 9.918 million tons in 2011, with a growth rate of about 5.3%. In addition to the impact of the reduction of domestic purchase tax and the slowdown of global economic growth, as the growth rate of automobile sales in China and the United States, which accounts for nearly half of the total sales of the global car market, tends to stabilize, it is expected that the growth rate of global automobile sales in 2011 will be about 12%, with a difference of 6.7%. From this point of view, the gap between supply and demand of Tianjiao is narrowing. Therefore, it is expected that the rubber price in 2011 is likely to change from the rapid rise in 2010 to a moderate rise

Shi Hai, a senior analyst at Shanghai Tonglian futures, pointed out that on the one hand, due to the tight supply and demand pattern of global Tianjiao, it is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the overall pattern of the rise in glue prices in 2011 will not change in direction. However, on the other hand, the regulatory pressure from policy, such as liquidity contraction and reserve selling, also increased the probability that futures prices will face a deep adjustment in 2011

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