Competition for staying power under the hottest wh

2022-08-14
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Under the intense competition, the "Three Kingdoms kill" pattern of power battery may change

at the end of July, the market heard that domestic Tesla was suspected of abandoning Panasonic battery, a long-term cooperative battery supplier of Tesla, which can avoid oil spillover. Since then, the relevant person in charge of Tesla China said that this was not Tesla's official news, and the report was inaccurate

although it is an oolong, it involves three Tesla suppliers - Ningde times, Panasonic battery and LG Chemical, which are precisely the representative enterprises in the battery field of China, Japan and South Korea. The current development situation of the domestic plastic machinery industry is that there are few high-level and personalized special varieties with low independent innovation ability. Since this year, the competition among the three enterprises in installed capacity and order volume has become intense, and the "Three Kingdoms kill" pattern of power batteries has continued to unfold

however, experts from battery enterprises and industries made a new judgment in an interview with Shanghai Securities News: considering the evolution of battery technology development route, the maintenance of relations with downstream customers and other factors, the "Three Kingdoms kill" in the future is likely to evolve into a competition between Ningde era and LG chemistry

the "Three Kingdoms kill" pattern of battery enterprises may change

sne research statistics show that LG Chemical's battery sales increased by 70% in the first five months of this year. The market share surged from 10.8% in 2019 to 24.2%, surpassing Ningde era, which has been at the top of the list for three years, and leapt to the first place in global battery enterprise shipments

according to public information, LG Chemical has obtained a loan of about 480 million euros (about 3.75 billion yuan) from the European investment bank this year and will invest all of it in LG Chemical's power battery plant in Poland. LG Chemical has formed battery production bases in South Korea, the United States, China and Poland, and has basically completed the global layout. According to LG Chemical's plan, the total production capacity of the four production bases will have better impact resistance and be expanded to 110gwh in 2020

lg chemical further revealed to the media that the company has a backlog of orders worth 150 trillion won (about 125 billion US dollars) and will remain busy in the next five years. Some critics believe that the challenge of LG chemistry to Ningde era will tend to be normalized

for Ningde era, the most important thing in the near future is that the fixed increase plan of nearly 20billion yuan has finally been implemented, and the non-public shares have been robbed by institutions. With a subscription amount of 10billion yuan, Hillhouse capital ranks among the top ten shareholders of Ningde era. Honda guarantees the in-depth cooperation with Ningde times through strategic investment by subscribing the shares of Ningde times

in terms of cooperation intention (fixed-point letter), it seems that the only partners publicly admitted by Ningde era this year are Tesla and Honda. Other channels have heard news from time to time. For example, ariya, the first pure electric crossover car released by Nissan recently, will be equipped with Ningde era ternary square battery, and Hyundai may reach a global power battery cooperation intention with Ningde era

faced with powerful rivals, Panasonic is in a slightly awkward position. At the beginning of this year, Tesla announced that LG Chemical and Ningde times had become battery suppliers, marking that Panasonic battery, which had cooperated with the company for many years, lost its status as an exclusive battery supplier. Tesla has said that the insufficient capacity of Panasonic limited mode17 A variety of test modes: tension test, pressure test, peel test, tear test, shear test, 3-point bending test, cyclic speed control tension and compression test, customized test (friction test, creep test, spring test, taper test...) l 3 production. Panasonic's chief financial officer said publicly earlier this year that Panasonic saw that Tesla's demand was very strong, exceeding the company's current annual capacity of 35gwh, and was discussing expanding the plant's capacity

Tesla signed a 2020 pricing agreement with Panasonic on June 10, involving the production and supply of power batteries at Panasonic's super factory in Nevada. The new agreement stipulates the specific terms of pricing, planned investment and new technology of both parties, as well as the production capacity of Panasonic and the purchase quantity of Tesla in the first two years of the agreement. According to public information, Panasonic battery currently supplies Tesla with 21700 and 18650 cylindrical batteries

In an interview with Shanghai Securities News, a domestic power battery industry expert said that with the increasing requirements of electric vehicles for energy density ratio and the increasing degree of batteries loaded on single vehicles, the long-standing cylindrical batteries are more complex in structure and battery management system, and today's market share is being swallowed by square and soft packed batteries, Panasonic battery is facing an increasingly severe situation

a number of battery business people and battery industry chain researchers interviewed believed that according to the latest order situation, financing situation and technical route, Ningde times and LG Chemical have a relatively greater competitive advantage. However, in terms of battery form, cylindrical batteries will still have a large market in the field of two wheeled vehicles and micro electric vehicles

hezhaohui, a researcher in the new industry of Shenzhen Hong Kong Securities and telecommunications, believes that Tesla adopts the parallel route of lithium iron phosphate and high nickel, and Ningde times has opened up the lithium iron phosphate route for Tesla, effectively reducing battery costs. Tesla's synchronous growth rate will continue to expand in the second half of the year. It is expected to complete sales of 500000 vehicles throughout the year, accounting for nearly 20% of the global market. The strong demand for power batteries drives the performance resonance of the upstream power battery industry chain

market concentration increases. Leading enterprises welcome the development of new machines

Liu Yanlong, Secretary General of China chemical and physical power industry association, said in an interview with Shanghai Securities News that with the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the acceleration of the reshuffle of the power battery industry, the market concentration is constantly improving

however, the new energy vehicle industry development plan (year) (Exposure Draft) released at the end of last year proposed that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles should account for 25%, and the sales of new smart cars should account for 30%. This has injected new momentum into the development of the industry

the person in charge of a large domestic power battery enterprise told that at present, the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounts for less than 5%, and the penetration rate will increase significantly to 25% in less than five years, which means that the compound annual growth rate of the battery industry will exceed 40%. The future market is very large. According to the investment cycle of the power battery industry, it is expected that the industry will usher in a "big explosion year" in 2023. Whether in terms of technical route or business model, battery enterprises may usher in new opportunities

Recently, xinguobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that the Ministry of industry and information technology will continue to vigorously promote the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure, encourage enterprises to develop models of switching mode according to applicable scenarios, support Beijing, Hainan and other places to carry out pilot promotion, and promote the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry, which is also a positive signal for the battery industry

Weilai auto salesperson said that the preferential policies and subsidies to encourage the power exchange mode will guide car enterprises to increase investment in the power exchange mode. Upstream battery enterprises also said that the separation of vehicle and electricity will lead to new business models, which is an important opportunity for battery manufacturers

in terms of technical route selection, two domestic battery enterprises said that through process innovation, lithium iron phosphate has a resurgence trend in the market with high cost performance. In the long run, the ceiling of ternary battery technology is far from being reached, and the ternary technology route is also the direction recognized by the international mainstream. In the next five to ten years, the research and development focus of leading enterprises at home and abroad is expected to continue to be on ternary batteries. Hydrogen fuel cells, solid-state batteries and other technical routes are difficult to achieve industrialization in the short term

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